AUDIO

by Archbishop Peter Jensen
Archbishop Peter Jensen's Christmas Message 2011 on the centrality of Jesus to human history
Surprised by extent of growth
Craig Schwarze
October 12th, 2010

The highlight of Synod the last few years has undoubtedly been the Archbishop’s address - this year was no different. The address was compassionate, intelligent and showed a real evangelical heart.

The Archbishop covered wide ground, and I was stimulated and challenged by every matter he raised.
There was a negative element, of course. A significant amount of time was spent addressing our current financial difficulties.

I originally planned to write about this issue, but I’ve decided to defer that until next week. Instead, I will look at something much more positive. Toward the end of his address, the Archbishop made the following report -

Through Connect 09 the Lord has blessed our renewed commitment to the community, as a way of sharing the good news of Jesus Christ with all. Counting church-going Sydney Anglicans is very difficult. But on the figures we have, and using considerable caution, we grew numerically in 2009, perhaps by even as much as 5%. To grow at all is significant; to grow by anything like that percentage is sensational. The figures may be approximate. But grow we did in the very year when we all together prayed, shared the word of God and went out into the community. We give God our praise. Let us take fresh heart, and keep sharing the word of God.


This was quite unexpected - and quite delightful.

In 2008, the mission midpoint report gave us the grim news that the diocese had not grown for several years. I was frankly doubtful about our ability to reverse this situation, and fearful that we were on the brink of decline.

I’m very pleased to have had my fears allayed - the credit belongs to the grace of God, and also to the hard work done by the Connect09 team.

I know the job is not done - it is hardly begun - but praise God for his generosity in giving us some immediate fruit for our labours.

Let’s pray that much more will follow.

Luke Stevens    14 October 2010 11:00pm
Do you know what the actual numbers are? It sounds good, it's just that the "perhaps by even as much as..." and "approximate" qualifications seem a bit weird. How is the growth measured?

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Craig Schwarze    15 October 2010 12:07am
Good questions Luke - I only know as much as the Archbishop reported in his speech. I'd be interested to know how this was calculated, if anyone knows.

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 12:20am
It's based on parish returns which used to be pretty dodgy but were firmed up significantly a few years ago as part of the need to have solid data to measure the mission.

For example, parish returns used to be the rectors report on the annual Sunday attendance across a whole year which was bodgy because it may or may not have included Christmas, Easter, Baptisms and other special services. Now they are based on the average attendance on four specific Sundays avoiding Christmas and Easter. (they are the last Sundays in four months named by the Diocese - someone may be able to remind me which are the right months)

Furthermore because parishes were publicly named (and shamed) there was reluctance to submit returns and perhaps some motivation to 'round up' the figures. Now the figures are merely pooled these factors are minimised.

In short, I have a fair amount of confidence in the figures given we are definately comparing apples and apples.

Indeed, the Archbishop said only 2 parishes didn't make returns which is very low compared to ten years ago.

Given my preliminary investigation, I would suggest the Archbishop has used the qualifiers because he was shocked at how high the growth was in 2009 and doesn't want to have egg on his face later if its turns out to be a blip.

But given the independent Anglicare report shows the actual practice of evangelism going through the roof across a whole range of measures in 2009, I'm personally not surprised at all. Such an impact would be consistent with what the NCLS has found across denominations for many years.

I'm investigating further. Stay tuned for the next Southern Cross.

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Craig Schwarze    15 October 2010 12:26am
Thanks Jeremy, that's good to know.

I think it's a fabulous result. I thought there might be quite a lead time between a vigorous evangelistic campaign and any meaningful results. This is a great encouragement to keep pushing forward with a Connect 09 style strategy.

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 12:38am
Yeah I agree Craig.

I think a lot of parishes put in a big effort last year, so we need to think how to build on that momentum, not see it fade into the distance as a 'one off' campaign.

The great strength of Connect09 is that it engaged the laity.

To avoid 2009 being a 'blip' we need to think how to maintain that aspect of the campaign.

Thoughts everyone?

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Craig Schwarze    15 October 2010 12:45am
What I'm wondering is how Connect 09 differed from other broad evangelistic campaigns of the past? For example, Britain's dismal "Decade of Evangelism". Even older local campaigns like "A fresh start" didn't seem to get as much traction as this.

I think one of the strengths of the campaign was that it was highly decentralised, and encouraged each parish to be it's own master. I think this suites the mood of the times, and also is the best way to exploit local strengths. But there may have been other factors at play.

It sounds like you will be asking the "why did it work?" question in an upcoming SC, so I look forward to that.

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 12:51am
Yeah decentralised tactics backed up by real money put into high-quality resources provided from the centre (Essential Jesus, Mark's magazine gospel, Colin Buchanan DVD).

So it was both specific and focussed in its central aim (read the gospel) but loose on implementation around the idea of 'praying for and connecting with neighbours'

Not everything ran perfectly of course - the centralised event-based stuff was bumpy in parts - but we had a go!

Andrew Nixon's report is worth a read.

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 12:55am
Nixon describes C09 this way:

The campaign had three aims –
1. A particular practical aim: to reach everyone with the Word of God.
2. A general missional aim: to reconnect churches with the wider community.
3. A cultural mindset change aim: to refocus the local congregation on the parish and the wider community.


I don't think the other campaigns attempted to address all 3 of these.

Previous campaigns in Sydney have only been #1, while the campaigns in England (eg back to Church Sunday) have just been #2.

Without knocking the other campaigns because they were worthwhile, its the combination that seems to have proved critical here.

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Grant Hayes    15 October 2010 2:18am
A maybe/maybe-not 5%(?) swell in SydAng pews (or plastic stackables) is a long way from the 10% Bible-churching of all Sydney mooted by Peter Jensen back in 2001. That target was supposed to be reached over the decade up to 2011. The decade is nearly over.

I guess we should be expecting to see the first signs of some vast revival, right about now ... could the 5%(?) be that start?

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 3:07am
A maybe/maybe-not 5%(?)


Grant,

There is no doubt we can confidently say there has been at least a 5% increase using the survey methodology I have described above. The Archbishop is actually talking it down. I suspect he doesn't want to be accused of triumphalism.

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Jeremy Halcrow    15 October 2010 3:23am
BTW - the 10% was never meant to be just Sydney Anglicans and it was 2012.

see this explanation from back in 2005.

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Jodie McNeill    17 October 2010 7:01pm
Plus, the 10% vision was designed to help pessimists see things through the eyes of optimists, and to pray and plan on that basis.

"Imagine if 10% of Sylvania went to a Bible-believing church each week. Where would we fit them? Who would lead them? How would we train those leaders?" etc.

I find it much easier to pray if I can have a grand vision to bring before God, and that's why I've found the mission goal to be useful.

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David Palmer    17 October 2010 8:44pm
PCV had a small uptick in past 12 years overall, though country parishes generally not doing so well.

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Craig Schwarze    19 October 2010 12:06am
My fear is whether we can continue this good work now that the Connect funding has run out. Will there still be a "Connect for Life" office, or is there no staff attached to this after 2010?

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David Clarke    19 October 2010 12:36am
Craig,
the Connect funding concludes this year.
The aim of the Mission Areas is to continue to build on the good things started during 2009.

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Craig Schwarze    19 October 2010 12:56am
Yeah, I thought as much. I am hopeful about the mission areas, and I really hope we don't lose momentum. Connect 09 shows us that hard and creative work can (by the grace of God) make a real difference.

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Dave Lankshear    19 October 2010 10:10pm
Any measures on across-the-board Protestant church attendance in Sydney? (Ignoring temporary catholic growth due to any temporary Mary hype).

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Dave Lankshear    20 October 2010 3:37am
Does God promise growth? As I just said on another forum where this topic has come up, I see promises that His Kingdom (the church) will never end, and that one day He will return and fix everything. But the in-between bits? I’m vague on what God has actually promised for church growth.

As I take it, we are promised power to be witnesses (Acts 1:8), not converters. God’s word will not return empty but just as some will become Christians, others will harden their hearts to the gospel — which is also the work of the gospel. (To some the scent of life, odour of death, and all that).

So what can we expect about church growth? I'm glad Sydney Anglican's have grown by 5%, as it suggests we are actually being bold enough to proclaim the gospel. But are gospel results always growth results? I don't think so.

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