Welcome to Election Year 2013, the business end of the political cycle. So what can be expected?

1. The Gillard Government will run close to its full term. The election is due by 30 November, but the window of dates is narrow when school breaks, public holidays and footy finals are factored in to the second half of 2013. A date in early September or late October is likely for the Federal election.

1. It is too early to predict who will win, even though polls put the Coalition ahead on a two-party preferred basis. A week is a long time in politics, especially when parliament starts sitting (5 February).

2. The key issue will be the economy. Already the year has barely started and the Budget surplus has bitten the dust. This is a bad start for Labor and damages their economic credentials (although no one really believed that a Budget surplus was deliverable in the Treasurer’s time-frame anyway). The big challenge for the Gillard Government will be credible funding models for new policy initiatives such as the Gonski education reforms (requiring a colossal $6.5bn in new money per year alone) and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Expect to see plenty of funding promises cast well into the future (e.g.  2018) rather than commencing during the term of the next government.  These are difficult matters, and the Government has already given a foretaste of how it proposes to deal with this politically, by throwing the spotlight on to divisive topics such as gender.

3. Voters will likewise expect more from Tony Abbott and his colleagues. Criticism, negativity and a small-target approach will fail. With polls showing that voters don’t really like Tony Abbot, commitments to repeal and reverse Labor decisions will be insufficient to win office.

4. A proper debate on poverty and income support has finally spluttered into life, thanks to Jenny Macklin. There are now widespread calls for reversal of the Government’s recent measure to place single parents on Newstart once their youngest child turns eight. If ever there was a measure adding to poverty levels, this is it. Churches and Christian welfare agencies need to step up pressure for a more compassionate and generous approach. Could you live on $35 a day?

5. Expect big debates on law reform issues, starting with Commonwealth plans for national anti-discrimination laws. Proposed reforms have already drawn fire from one of the country’s top legal minds, Jim Spigelman AC. Astonishingly, the draft proposals include a clause that will make ‘offending’ a person unlawful. While this is unlikely to end up in the final bill, the remaining detail needs to be watched closely.

6. Law reform issues will include continued attempts by euthanasia supporters to force change at a state level. The flash-point will be smaller jurisdictions such as South Australia, Tasmania, the ACT, particularly the latter two where senior Labor figures sympathetic to euthanasia govern in coalition with the Greens. Measures to introduce euthanasia have failed thus far, but its advocates have access to a large war-chest, are very motivated and highly organised.

Finally, let’s pray for a more civilized climate of public debate. It couldn’t get any worse!