Call me cynical, but with the Australian economy just having narrowly escaped technical recession, it is hardly surprising that the Rudd Government hardheads are now apparently speculating about an early election.
Recent talk about an early poll had all the hallmarks of a proposition under serious consideration in Canberra.
Kevin Rudd looked deeply unconvincing when questioned about it on TV last week. The Australian economy has weathered the global financial crisis much better than most other developed nations. The Government's stimulus package has appeared to inject some short-term optimism into the economy. Shares are up. The dollar is up. Perhaps we are through the worst.
Federal governments are elected for a three-year term of office. Under the electoral cycle, the earliest date for a joint election of the Senate and House of Representatives is August 7, 2010, over 12 months away. But because the Federal system does not have fixed term parliaments, the date of an election is still very much in the hands of the government of the day.
However, the process of an early poll so far out is more complex than the Government deciding to dissolve parliament. It involves establishing triggers for a double dissolution of both the Senate and the House of Representatives to break deadlocks where legislation fails to pass, or is unacceptably amended. Establishing triggers is never easy and this course of action is not taken lightly. Yet with the Opposition still trying to find its feet and economic indicators on the up, why wouldn't the Government consider the idea in its quieter moments?
For a long time I have been a supporter of fixed term parliaments as a means of taking this element of political opportunism out of the system and providing certainty for business and government decision-making. An election this early in the cycle would inject a further note of instability into economic confidence and take the Government's eyes off the important task of keeping people in jobs and unemployment down. Let's pray for wise judgment to overrule temptation!