You know the working year has begun when parliament starts sitting. Pollies returned in force to Canberra last week, and the theatrics quickly began - Rudd v. Abbott, Gillard v. the teachers' unions, Barnaby Joyce v. informed policy. With a federal election due before the end of the year, and a NSW poll little more than 12 months off, here are my predictions for what will be an action-packed political cycle.
1. Kevin Rudd will win the next election. Governments have to be very incompetent to lose an election after one term in office. People complain that change is slow in Canberra under Rudd, but Australia will re-elect his government for its 'steady as she goes' approach, and for escaping the worst of the GFC (even if the policy settings were established by Peter Costello).
2. Although defeated, the Coalition will reward Tony Abbott with another term as Opposition Leader. This year, he will take the fight right up to the government with his straight-talking political style. Abbott is also a true Conservative with many supporters in Canberra. They love it.
3. Climate change will further polarise the political agenda. But the debate will acquire a more 'human' face with greater emphasis on communities and the potential impact of doing nothing, both here and in the developing world.
4. State Labor will look like they could win the March 2010 election. Amazing, but true. Kristina Keneally has made State Labor look like a new government and she is very likeable. More critically, the NSW Libs are running so dead they could end up in an electoral grave of their own making. All Kenneally needs to do in 2010 is lay 100m of train or light rail track anywhere in Sydney (to show she has started fixing Sydney's transport problems), and pass responsibility for the health system to the Federal Government.
5. Malcolm Turnbull will move to NSW State Parliament. The NSW Liberal Party is dominated by small 'l' liberals closer to his own political beliefs. He will be at home there. Drum roll, please.
6. The Charter of Human Rights is a dead duck. Attorney-General Robert McClelland said as much in a recent interview with the Financial Review. We will get a beefed-up parliamentary committee (or committees) to oversee our human rights obligations. (For a pdf document of Sydney Diocese position on human rights, click here ) Likewise, the Federal Freedom of Religious Belief Project will go nowhere. What is happening in Britain under a strident 'rights' agenda is so scary that even moderates in Australia won't want to go there. (For a pdf document of the Sydney Diocese FRB submission, click here)
7. There will be a broad national conversation about the effects of sexual freedom. This will range from the consequences of binge drinking, the sexualisation of teenagers, the moderation of male sexual behaviour, to lowering abortion rates. Footballers started this discussion over the course of 2008-9 by their appalling behaviour, and Tony Abbott kicked it off in 2010 with his recent remarks about virginity. Dear reader, this is water-cooler stuff and Christians need the courage to discuss it.
