Out of the blue, we have a new Prime Minister in Julia Gillard. The suddenness of the leadership challenge took Australians, most of Federal Labor and especially Kevin Rudd, by complete surprise.
How the voting public reacts remains to be seen. Unfortunately recent political history tells us that women elevated to high levels of political leadership on the back of falling polls are usually the last person standing before electoral defeat - think Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner and now Kristina Keneally in NSW. In this case, the decision to swap leaders so late in the electoral cycle is either brilliant politics or an act of political kamikaze.
That the Federal ALP did not have the ticker to tough out some bad polls, stand on their record and rally behind their leader absolutely beggars belief, particularly so close to an election. Yes the polls were falling, but was that reason enough to dump a sitting Prime Minister who had led the party to a landslide victory? Here was the leader that (amongst other things) pulled Australia through the global financial crisis, apologised to the stolen generations, raised Australia to a major player on the international stage, delivered tax cuts and parental leave, and guided us through a major period of international instability.
This winning-at-all costs mentality of the ALP backroom has deeply infected the Labor movement. As one watched Rudd's tearful press conference, one could only question the values underpinning this outcome.
Indeed the public were dissatisfied with Kevin Rudd and certain decisions, but were they so dissatisfied that a wholesale change in the country's leader was demanded? There have been errors, and the failure of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) stands fairly and squarely in the centre of these problems. But bizarrely those who advised Kevin Rudd to abandon the ETS, the NSW and Victorian Right of the Australian Labor Party, are the very people who were behind moves to dump him.
Given the state of the NSW Labor Government, I am not sure that anyone should be listening to the political counsel of the NSW ALP Right. They have made an art form of changing leaders when the going gets tough. NSW has had three premiers since the last election.
Clearly there are a number of political factors which have played into this situation. The failure of the ETS badly damaged Kevin Rudd's leadership by creating a perception of a leader who could not stand by his convictions. The 'greatest moral challenge of our time' was suddenly set aside when it got too difficult. This was followed closely by the collapse of the home insulation program (a failure of policy implementation), revelations of problems with the school building program (Julia Gillard's home turf and again a failure in implementation) and the apparently sudden and very brave decision to take on the mining industry on the eve of the election.
In addition, Kevin Rudd was always an outlier. Despite his background as a senior political staff to former Labor Premier Wayne Goss, he was not a factional player and lacked any real factional power base. We now know that his personal style was deeply controlling, not consultative, prone to outbursts of anger, with unrealistic expectations of work and performance from those under and around him. His colleagues in the caucus and cabinet tired of the lack of consultation and indeed the Cabinet was no real cabinet at all. It is said that ministers would turn up to find briefs in their folders sight unseen. Major decisions were made by an inner kitchen cabinet of four - Rudd, Gillard, Lindsay Tanner and Wayne Swan. These others must bear responsibility for this dysfunction in the Executive Government. There was evidently a lack of accountability for this leadership style on a number of fronts.
Julia Gillard is a formidable opponent - tough, smart, a clear communicator with a measured political judgement and manner of personal presentation which is confident and reassuring. The public quite like her and she reflects a common touch in her voice and manner. Whether this can lead Labor to victory remains to be tested.
In the meantime I'll be praying for Kevin Rudd. He is a man of Christian conviction and what an appalling situation for him personally - one minute Australia's most popular Labor prime minister ever, the next a political feather duster. He must be left wondering how did it come to this? What is Gods will for him as he surveys the ruins of his political career? What will happen now?
Indeed, in these times of instability, let's pray for all our leaders. For those of us in leadership, these situations should cause us to pause and re-examine our own management style.